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In spite of the rising addiction to rapid consumption of online news information, people and current technologies are yet to adapt to the age of misinformation, where incorrect or misleading information is intentionally or unintentionally spread. Combating misinformation is a complex task, and there is consensus in psychology literature that simply presenting people with corrective information is likely to fail in changing their salient beliefs and opinions, or may, even , reinforce them,,, and that people often struggle to change their beliefs even after finding out that the information they already accepted is incorrect., Nevertheless, some strategies have been found to be effective in correcting misperceptions, such as providing an explanation rather that a simple refute, exposing to related but disconfirming stories, and revealing the demographic similarity of the opposing group.
Tackling the new societal challenge of misinformation requires strengthening stakeholders’ resilience to misinformation by promoting:
(1) Empowerment, by raising individual and collective awareness of current misinformation content and sources,
(2) Engagement, by fostering networking and cross-communication between all stakeholders,
(3) Education, by informing stakeholders of advanced misinformation analysis results and predictions, and
(4) Encouragement of all stakeholders to play a role in detecting, in/validating, and combatting misinformation.
Members of Innovating Governance have several years of experience and are participating in various projects on data governance and artificial intelligence tools. These projects are being implemented for various organisations, including European Commission, national governments, international organisations and multi-lateral funds.
These projects ain to increase resilience of the modern societies against misinformation while following three major assumptions: (a) resilience to misinformation can be established with tools and strategies for better exposure of citizens, who are consuming and sharing misinformation on social media, to information validations from fact checking journalists, (b) understanding and predicting what misinformation is spreading, how public opinion is forming around it, and how demographic and topological parameters of social networks are influencing acceptability and spread of misinformation, can support policymakers in generating evidence-based and informed policies, and (c) misinformation-handling behaviour of citizens can be influenced and monitored to assess the impact of different misinformation management policies.
Nadejda Komendantova of Innovating Governance takes part in several sessions focused on artificial intelligence tools at the European Geophysical Union (EGU) Annual Meeting, the largest and most significant event in disaster risk reduction. Prof. Komendantova convened the session "NH9.15 ~ Positive and negative impacts of societies on natural hazards and risks" and deliver multiple presentations:
Cyber-Echoes of Climate Crisis: Unraveling Anthropogenic Climate Change Narratives on Social Media
This study collected 333,635 tweets in English about anthropogenic climate change. Using Natural Language Processing (NLP) and machine learning, the tweets were analyzed and clustered into four narratives: human-caused climate change, scientific arguments, policy discussions, and conspiracy theories. The findings can inform media policy and enhance communication strategies on climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Intention to Apply Artificial Intelligence Using Fact-Checking Tools in Disaster Management
This research explores the use of AI-based fact-checking tools to evaluate the credibility of disaster-related information on social media. A conceptual framework was developed to understand the impact of critical thinking, heuristic processing, and new-source tracking on the intention to use these tools. The study, based on data from 202 respondents across Europe, found that critical thinking influences the intention to use fact-checking tools indirectly through these mediators.
Participation in Climate Change Adaptation
This analysis examines participatory elements in climate change adaptation policies at the EU level and within Germany and Spain. It highlights the importance of stakeholder involvement, transparency, and feedback mechanisms in shaping effective climate strategies. The study identifies gaps in current participatory processes and emphasizes the need for inclusive approaches and representation of marginalized communities.
Persistence of Rumours and Hate Speech Over Years: The Manchester Arena Bombing
This study investigates the dynamics of rumors and hate speech on social media and in the press following the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing. It reveals how Twitter amplified misinformation, while the press provided fact-checked and nuanced perspectives. The research underscores the significant impact of social media narratives on public sentiment, particularly regarding immigration policies.
Nadejda Komendantova has published a paper titled "A Multi-Dimensional Model of Anticipating Intention to Use Social Media for Disaster Risk Reduction" in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (Elsevier). The study employs a multi-dimensional model based on three parameters: the technology adoption model, digital infrastructure characteristics of social media, and source credibility.
Key findings indicate that the intention to use social media during disasters is primarily driven by three factors:
Acquiring public information.
Confirming journalistic reporting.
Sharing information related to disasters.
Read the full paper here.
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Nadejda Komendantova is leading the exploration of social intelligence mining, utilizing innovative tools to analyze data from X (formerly Twitter), with a focus on risk management, earthquakes, and disasters. The results of her study have been featured in the prestigious journal, Machine Learning and Knowledge Extraction.
In the digital age, social media and web platforms serve as vital data sources, revealing patterns in public opinion, emerging trends, and market dynamics. Social intelligence mining involves extracting valuable insights from user-generated content on platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and X. While much of this data might seem trivial, it can significantly enhance our understanding of societal interactions and trends.
Komendantova's research employs social trend mining techniques to analyze X data related to disaster risk management. By examining public sentiment and communication patterns, the study provides critical insights for policymakers and researchers to develop policies that are more likely to gain public acceptance.
The full study is accessible here.
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Nadejda is organizing and moderating an upcoming webinar titled "Fighting Misinformation in Risk Communication: Managing Incorrect Information in Disasters." This webinar will cover critical topics, including:
Addressing misinformation throughout the communication chain.
Tools to combat misinformation on social media related to earthquakes.
Misinformation concerning natural hazards.
Meta-analysis on misinformation and the use of artificial intelligence tools.
Unraveling social media narratives using AI tools.
For more information, visit the webinar details on LinkedIn.
Nadejda, in collaboration with the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the International Dialogue Centre, has published a comprehensive study titled "Misinformation and Its Impact on Contested Policy Issues: The Example of Migration Discourses."
This study delves into the pervasive issue of misinformation surrounding migration, especially on social media. Analyzing 45,000 English tweets, it highlights the range of attitudes towards migrants, uncovering misinformation, concerns, and both positive and negative sentiments. The study identifies the harmful effects of misinformation, such as fostering false representations of migrants, promoting negative attitudes, and consolidating prejudices. It also discusses how misinformation undermines trust in official authorities among migrants and creates an environment ripe for exploitation by smugglers and traffickers.
To combat these challenges, the study suggests measures like raising awareness, promoting evidence-based reasoning, and encouraging diverse interpersonal dialogue.
Read the full study here.
Nadejda takes part in a deep dive into the dynamic world of big data analytics, focusing on Social Intelligence Mining. This session, organized by the UN Asia and the Pacific Data Integration Community of Practice, was held on January 9, 2024. It offered unique insights into mining and analyzing public perception to extract actionable insights.
Designed for professionals, researchers, and scientists passionate about AI, machine learning, data science, analytics, and public policy, this seminar was a prime opportunity to explore the complex mechanisms of big data analytics and its applications in addressing contemporary social issues.
A key part of the discussion will be dedicated to AI ethics and data privacy, tackling the challenges surrounding these crucial issues in today's digital landscape. The session was interactive and engaging, allowing participants to converse with experts and stay updated on the latest developments in social intelligence mining and big data analytics.
Nadejda has been appointed as an independent expert on the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Foresight Expert Panel, established in collaboration with the International Science Council (ISC). This panel aims to enhance science-based strategic foresight and futures thinking to better prepare for and proactively engage with future environmental challenges.
UNEP and ISC's partnership focuses on identifying and evaluating emerging issues and signals of change to inform global environmental decisions. As an ISC member and UNEP observer, IIASA nominated experts for the panel, and Komendantova was selected among approximately 20 distinguished scholars and specialists worldwide, representing diverse disciplines and perspectives.
The panel's main responsibilities include:
Systematically detecting, interpreting, and evaluating emerging issues and opportunities impacting global environmental outcomes.
Providing guidance on relevant evidence and knowledge to be incorporated.
Contributing to the collection of new evidence.
This work aims to strengthen UNEP’s ability to manage uncertainty and disruptive change, fostering an anticipatory and future-oriented culture through strategic foresight and horizon scanning. The panel's efforts will culminate in a global report to be published in 2024, which will inform the sixth UN Environment Assembly in February 2024 and the Summit of the Future in September 2024.
Learn more about UNEP's strategic foresight initiative and Komendantova's role here.
Nadejda is part of a groundbreaking study on the rise of malicious bots spreading earthquake conspiracies on Twitter. The study, conducted with Dmitry Erokhin, examines how bots contribute to the dissemination of false information following significant seismic events.
Despite earthquakes being well-understood natural occurrences, they remain a common subject of conspiracy theories due to their sudden and devastating impact. Social media amplifies these theories, making their study crucial.
Key findings include:
Bot-like accounts, though fewer than human-like accounts, are more active in spreading misinformation about earthquakes.
There is a notable link between bot activity and the toxicity level of content.
The study identified seven prominent conspiracy discourses, including military activities, divine intervention, and the US HAARP program as causes of earthquakes. Other theories implicated CERN and aliens.
The research analyzed tweets from November 2022, following a 5.6-magnitude earthquake in Indonesia. It found that bots significantly fueled discussions linking earthquakes to these conspiracies.
The study emphasizes the need for policymakers and social media platforms to develop strategies to combat misinformation and protect public understanding of science.
For more details, read the full study: The role of bots in spreading conspiracies: Case study of discourse about earthquakes on Twitter.
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